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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 12th, 2022–Apr 13th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Assess for slab development before committing yourself to consequential terrain. Treat the danger as a step higher if you find 30+ cm of fresh snow in your riding area.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, 30 to 40 km/h east wind, treeline temperature -5 C.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries, accumulation 1 to 3 cm, 20 km/h southeast wind, treeline temperature -3 C, freezing level rising to 1100 m.

THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, 10 to 20 km/h northeast wind, treeline temperature -3 C.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy with afternoon snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 10 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -3 C.

Avalanche Summary

We didn't receive any reports on Monday. This MIN describes recent dry snow as being reactive but only producing small avalanches. Looking forward, the most likely area to trigger an avalanche is in steep, wind-loaded terrain features. Areas that received 20+ cm of new snow should be wary of storm slabs too.

Observations are limited at this time of year, so please consider posting to the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Variable amounts of snow accumulated over the day on Tuesday, from 5 to 25 cm with associated strong wind from various directions. More snow is forecast for Tuesday night, which may bring storm totals to 10 to 40 cm. New wind slabs likely formed in exposed terrain at higher elevations and storm slabs may have formed in terrain sheltered from the wind, particularly where 20+ cm accumulated. The snow fell on previous dry snow which all sits on a hard melt-freeze crust buried around 30 to 60 cm deep.

The remainder of the snowpack is strong, consisting of hard snow and various melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Carefully evaluate bigger terrain features on an individual basis before committing to them.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.