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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 3rd, 2022–Apr 4th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

If the upper values of forecast precipitation amounts and freezing levels ring true, stay home!

A rain on snow event could put us into another destructive cycle at lower elevations, alongside a winter storm cycle up high.

Weather Forecast

Another weather system arrives late tonight and will bring rain and snow with very strong gusty winds. Forecasts are quite uncertain!

Tonight: Snow, 14cm + convective cells. Fzl 1400-1700m. Wind S- 30km/h gusting to 60.

Monday: Snow, 10cm. Fzl  1500m. Wind SW- 15km/h gusting to 70.

Tuesday: Flurries, 6cm. Fzl 1300. Wind W- 20 km/h gusting to 50.

Snowpack Summary

30-50cm of storm snow has accumulated at Treeline and above (drainage dependant due to convection) burying a variety of surfaces including wind slabs, solar crusts to mountain top, and a melt/freeze crust to 2200m. Northerly slopes in the Alpine hold cold, wintery snow. The December 1st crust is down 1.5-2m. Late season cornices are LARGE!

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches observed since Wednesday with the cooler temps. The widespread natural avalanche cycle from Mon/Tues was driven primarily by strong solar input and rain, especially at lower elevations. Wet slabs, deep persistent slabs, glides, and loose wets were gouging to ground, breaking trees, and running full path.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.