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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 18th, 2022–Feb 19th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Use caution at all elevations. The new snow likely won't bond well to the underlying crust.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Friday night: low of -2 at 1200m. Lihght flurries bringing trace amounts of snow and light westerly winds. 

Saturday: stormy weather bringing 20 to 30cm of snow and moderate westerly winds. Freezing level rising to 1200m.

Sunday: mix of sun and cloud with no new snow expected. Light northerly winds and a high of -3 at 1200m.

Monday: cloudy with light flurries bringing trace amounts of snow. Light northerly winds and a high of -2 at 1200m.

Avalanche Summary

We suspect skier triggerable wind and storm slabs will be found on Saturday.

On Thursday ski cutting produced a few size one loose wet avalanches in steep terrain.

Snowpack Summary

New snow accompanied by westerly winds will likely build new storm and wind slabs throughout the day on Saturday.

The mid February crust is down 15cm and exists on all aspects and elevations.

The late-January melt-freeze crust is now down around 40 cm and is reported to be knife hard and up to 30 cm thick. This crust extends to at least the top of treeline and is generally well bonded to the adjacent snow. 

The middle and lower snowpack are considered well settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.