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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 30th, 2022–Mar 31st, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia.

Conditions may change quickly with rain or strong solar input. Be ready to scale back your exposure to avalanche terrain if the surface crust breaks down.

Cautious route-finding will be important at upper elevations as wind slabs may be reactive to human triggering.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partially cloudy with flurries. Freezing level dropping to 500 m. 20-40 km/h northwesterly winds. 

THURSDAY: Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries. Freezing level rising to 1200 m. 15-35 km/h westerly winds.

FRIDAY: Partially cloudy with isolated flurries. Freezing level rising to 1500 m. 10-25 km/h southwest winds.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with flurries. Freezing level rising to 1600 m. 20-30 km/h southwest winds. 

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, a widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred with storm/wind slabs up to size 3 on all aspects, with the most reactivity noted on south-facing aspects. Numerous wet loose and wet slab avalanches occurred at treeline and below (size 1-2).

A few notable deep persistent slab avalanches occurred on Monday and Tuesday. These slabs are suspected to have failed on the early December crust near the base of the snowpack.

A widespread wet loose/slab natural avalanche cycle up to size 3 occurred on Monday on all aspects and elevations.

On Monday, a size 1.5 skier-triggered wind slab occurred on south aspect in the alpine. This wind slab failed on a slick crust below the new snow. 

The last persistent slab avalanche in the region was on March 25th. This layer is expected to become dormant after being tested by significant warming followed by cooling temperatures. 

Snowpack Summary

5-15 cm of new snow overlies up to 20 cm of denser snow above 2000 m. Southwest winds may form small wind slabs in lee terrain features. Below 2000 m on all aspects and to mountain top on solar aspects, a crust or moist snow can be found. Below the crust, the top 10-50 cm of the snowpack is moist. 

Several other crust layers exist in the upper snowpack, that have shown no recent reactivity. The remainder of the snowpack is well-bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.