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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 20th, 2021–Jan 21st, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

As the skies clear keep in mind recent snow could still be reactive on steep wind loaded slopes.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear, light northeast wind, treeline temperatures around -8 C.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny, light northeast wind, treeline temperatures around -5 C.

FRIDAY: Sunny, light north wind, treeline temperatures around -4 C.

SATURDAY: Increasing cloud during the day, moderate northwest wind, treeline temperatures around -8 C.

Avalanche Summary

A steady pulse of storms over the past week has resulted in several widespread natural avalanche cycles. The most recent was on Tuesday with numerous size 1-3 storm slab avalanches at alpine and treeline elevations, especially on wind loaded slopes. In northern parts of the region some of these avalanches stepped down to deeper persistent weak layers and resulted in very large avalanches (size 3-4). See some photos from Monday of avalanches near Shames in this MIN report.

The snowpack should rapidly gain strength with the clearing and cooling weather, making the primary concern lingering storm slabs at upper elevations. If you are travelling to northern parts of the region (e.g. Stewart or Ningunsaw), then persistent slabs should be on your radar as well.

Snowpack Summary

A final storm pulse on Tuesday dumped about 25 cm of snow with extra loading in lee terrain from strong southwest wind. Cooling temperatures has likely formed a surface crust below treeline (roughly 1100 m and below). A total of 100-150 cm of settled snow has fallen in January, which has been helping various early season weak layers to settle and strengthen. In the southern part of the region it appears the early season layers have gone inactive, however there has been regular avalanche activity on weak snow at the bottom of the snowpack in the northern part of the region (e.g. around Bear Pass and Ningunsaw).

Terrain and Travel

  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Stay off recently wind loaded slopes until they have had a chance to stabilize.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.