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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 1st, 2021–Feb 4th, 2021

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

Rapid loading will dramatically increase the hazard in the next 24h. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended Tuesday. Carefully evaluate how storm snow is bonding to previous surfaces before stepping out into bigger terrain later in the week.

Weather Forecast

Monday night: 12cm of snow at Cameron lake with rain in the townsite. Freezing level 1600m. SW wind 30km/h gusting 80km

Tuesday:12cm of snow at Cameron Lake with wet snow & rain in the townsite. Freezing level 1500m. SW wind 30km/h gusting 80km

Wed/Thurs: Cloudy with sunny periods & isolated flurries. Trace precipitation. Freezing level valley bottom

Snowpack Summary

10-25 cm of snow is expected at higher elevations tuesday. Rapid loading during tuesdays storm will form storm slabs over top of old wind slab. Previous wind slab sits on a firm crust below 1900m.  We have not found the buried surface hoar that has been causing instability in neighboring regions but this problem may still exist in isolated pockets.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches observed but we expect a natural cycle to occur tuesday/ wednesday. Please post a MIN if you see anything!

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Tuesday

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.