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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 31st, 2021–Feb 1st, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Conditions are changing after a prolonged period of good stability. It's time to scale back our exposure.

Weather Forecast

A coastal low is pushing a series of fronts inland, giving moderate snowfall and wind.

Tonight: Flurries (6 cm). High -4 C. Light-Moderate S wind. Freezing level (Fzl) 1600m.

Tonight: Flurries (7 cm). Low -5 C. Mod S wind.

Monday: Snow (16 cm). High -2 C. Low -9 C. Mod-strong S wind.  Fzl 1800m.

Tuesday: Snow (12cm). High -4. Mod S wind. Fzl 1400m

Snowpack Summary

New snow (15-20cm so far) is beginning to build a slab over the previous drought layer (surface facets, surface hoar, wind affect, and sun crust).  As the wind picks up and snowfall continues, expect reactive storm slabs to develop quickly. The snowpack below is mostly well bonded, with critical layers from earlier this winter now dormant.

Avalanche Summary

Pockets of reactive Windslab continue to be reported at and above treeline.  Small loose dry avalanches (sluffs) have also been reported to be running fast and far in steep terrrain. Cornices are large and weak, approach corniced ridges with caution, and avoid hanging out beneath them.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.