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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 23rd, 2020–Dec 24th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia.

The load sitting on a variety of buried weak layers has likely reached a tipping point. If triggered avalanches running on these weak layers may be large and destructive. Choose conservative terrain in the coming days.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to limitations in the field data.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear skies, light southwest wind, alpine temperature near -12 C. 

THURSDAY: Mainly sunny, light southerly wind, alpine temperature near -4 C with a chance of a weak temperature inversion.

FRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light to moderate south wind, alpine temperature near -5 C. 

SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries, light west wind, alpine temperature near -7 C.

Avalanche Summary

Over the weekend a natural avalanche cycle took place with avalanches averaging size 1.5 to 2.5, but there were a few size 3 and even size 3.5's in the mix too. Many of the larger avalanches likely ran on persistent weak layers.

Snowpack Summary

60 to 100 cm of storm snow has fallen over the last week. Underneath this storm snow there is a sandwich of weak layers which are widespread throughout the region.

Just under the new snow, about one meter below the surface is the mid December surface hoar. This layer has been failing naturally and has been quite sensitive to human triggering. Large avalanches have been running on this interface connecting big terrain features. 

Below that lies the early December persistent weak layer, it's about 80 to 140 cm below the surface. This weak layer is a mixed bag that often presents as surface hoar and facets sitting on top of a supportive crust. This is a nasty weak layer, when avalanches fail on it, they have been large and destructive. Smaller avalanches in motion can step down to this one too. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Carefully manage your exposure to overhead hazards while entering and leaving riding areas.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.