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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 25th, 2021–Jan 26th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Gather information as you travel. Assess the bond of new snow if deposits are over 20 cm or anywhere variable easterly or southerly winds have created slab like properties. Keep in mind recent snow likely sits atop surface hoar.   

Confidence

Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected. Uncertainty is due to field data and reports showing a wide variation in conditions throughout the region.

Weather Forecast

Continued cool temps and a mix of clouds, sun and isolated flurries for this week with winds shifting to easterly.  

MONDAY NIGHT: Mainly clear, light to moderate southerly wind, treeline temperatures around -10 C.

TUESDAY: A mix of sun and clouds, light to moderate easterly wind, treeline temperatures around -8 C.

WEDNESDAY: A mix of sun and clouds, light to moderate southeast wind that shift to northeast, treeline temperatures around -11 C.

THURSDAY: Mainly cloudy with sun breaks, light easterly winds, treeline temperatures around -14 C.

Avalanche Summary

Isolated large avalanches have been reported to have failed during the weekend storm on recently buried surface hoar in the southeast of the region. Otherwise, no significant avalanche activity has been reported since Tuesday in the southern and central regions. Debris are still evident from these size 1-3 storm slabs (in the south of the region) and some very large (size 3-4) deep persistent slabs in the north. In the northern regions (e.g. Stewart or Ningunsaw), large explosives were able to trigger a couple of very large avalanches on deep persistent layers near the ground in the past week. 

Snowpack Summary

10-20 cm of new snow fell over the weekend. If winds increase to moderate levels, anticipate fresh wind slabs may form in the immediate lee of wind affected ridge crests treeline and in the alpine. This new snow has also buried surface hoar in sheltered locations at and below treeline, which should be investigated anywhere snow fall deposits exceed 20 cm. New snow also buries a crust below 1000 m.  

A total of 100-150 cm of settled snow has fallen in January, which has helped strengthen early season weak layers. Deeper layers appear to have gone inactive in the southern part of the region. However, in the northern part of the region (e.g. Bear Pass, Ningunsaw) there has still been regular avalanche activity on weak snow at the bottom of the snowpack with large loads such as explosives or cornice collapses.

Terrain and Travel

  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Be aware of the potential for larger than expected storm slabs due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
  • Watch your sluff: it may run faster and further than you expect.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.