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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 28th, 2021–Dec 29th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies.

Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Keep in mind that cold temperatures significantly increase the consequence of even minor injuries in the backcountry.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy / Light variable wind / Low of -32

WEDNESDAY: Sunny / Light northwest wind increasing to moderate in the afternoon / High of -20

THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Moderate northwest wind / High of -20

FRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light variable wind / High of -23

Avalanche Summary

Numerous naturally triggered storm slab avalanches up to size 2 were reported on Monday. See MIN report.

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm totals reached over 120 cm! Expect dry loose avalanches (sluffing) running far and fast in steep terrain.

Recent winds have created wind slabs on a variety of aspects and created a lot of variability in the upper snowpack.

A crust from early December is now 60-100 cm below the surface, and is found up to 2400 m. A layer of weak facets (sugary snow) has been reported above and below this crust. This is the layer of concern in our persistent avalanche problem, snowpack tests are generally showing hard results on this interface, however, areas where avalanches have recently failed on this crust continue to be problematic once reloaded with new snow. 

Below 2300 m, several early-season crusts make up the lower snowpack. Snowpack depths range from 80-150 cm at treeline elevations and taper quickly below 1900m.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.
  • Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.
  • If triggered, loose dry avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.