Dashboard Regions Weather Stations Radar Alerts Glossary
Contact About
Log In

Register for an account and never miss a forecast again!

Register

Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 10th, 2022–Feb 11th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Local avalanche danger will likely be determined by the presence of a surface crust. A strong, supportive crust means avalanches will be unlikely. If there is no crust or if it starts to break down with afternoon warming, wet loose avalanches may be possible on steep slopes.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure brings very warm and sunny conditions which are expected to persist until the end of Sunday. 

Thursday night: Mainly clear, moderate NW wind easing overnight, freezing levels 2500-3000 m.

Friday: Sunny, light N wind, freezing levels around 3000 m. 

Saturday: Sunny, light NW wind, freezing levels around 3000 m.

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud, moderate SW wind, freezing levels 2500-3000 m. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported recently. Tuesday's transition from snowfall to rain likely initiated small wet loose releases. Larger releases may have occurred in areas that did not see rain over the weekend - mainly at higher elevations. If you are out in the mountains, please let us know what you are seeing. 

Looking forward, stability of the snowpack will be tied to the presence or absence of a surface crust. Wet loose avalanches will remain possible in steep terrain where the upper snowpack reaches an isothermal state (wet snow throughout). As a surface crust forms and as free water drains from the upper snowpack, this potential will diminish rapidly.

Snowpack Summary

10-30 mm of rain on Tuesday evening soaked the snow surface on all aspects and elevations. The formation of a surface crust is expected with clear skies Thursday overnight. 

Below the surface, 10-60 cm of moist to wet snow and deteriorating crust layers sit above the thick late-January crust. This crust extends to mountain tops on all aspects.

The mid and lower snowpack is composed of more moist to wet snow that is well settled. Shallow snow cover at low elevations leaves many hazards like stumps and creeks exposed at or just below the snow surface.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.