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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2025–Dec 16th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Purcells, South Rockies, East Purcell, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

The likelihood of human-triggered avalanches remains elevated, particularly in wind-loaded terrain and steep slopes near treeline.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, there were several large (size 3) natural avalanches near Panorama. Likely failing on the persistent weak layer.

Snowpack Summary

Approximately 5 to 15 cm of snow fell on Monday with strong wind which likely built storm slabs over a weak snowpack.

Around 50 to 90 cm deep lies a potential weak layer of faceted snow at higher elevations, and surface hoar at lower elevations.

A mid-November melt-freeze crust is buried 60 to 100 cm below the surface at lower-alpine elevations (around 2400 m) and below, but this crust appears to be absent in higher-alpine terrain.

Snowpack depths at treeline range from 90 to 140 cm and decrease rapidly at lower elevations.

Weather Summary

Monday Night
Mostly cloudy with up to 10 mm of precipitation as snow or rain at treeline. 40 to 70 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level falling to 1500 m.

Tuesday
Mostly cloudy with 3 to 5 cm of snow. 20 to 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.

Wednesday
Mostly cloudy with 25 to 30 cm of snow. 30 to 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level 2000 overnight, then falling to 1500 m.

Thursday
Mix of sun and clouds with up to 5 cm of snow. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -7 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Approach steep and open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, as buried surface hoar may exist.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried weak layers.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.