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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 9th, 2023–Jan 10th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Soft wind slabs are present at immediate ridge top and their lee features.

Persistent weak layers may be triggered from shallow, rocky areas. 'Whumpfing' is a clue that you're tapping into these layers of concern.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No human-triggered nor natural avalanches have been reported in the last few days.

Snowpack Summary

5-10cm of new snow has freshened up the surface. This sits on a settled, in some places wind-affected, upper snowpack.

The December 23rd facet interface is down ~60cm and appears to be gaining strength, but remains a concern in shallow snowpack areas.

The November 17th facet/crust/surface hoar layer is down ~100cm and has become less reactive in snowpack tests, though when it does fail it is 'sudden' in character.

Weather Summary

Isolated flurries continue to get burped over from the Pacific, but not amounting to much snow here.

Tues: sun and cloud, trace snow, Alp high -6*C, 1100m FZL, light SE winds

Wed: sun and cloud, Alp high -4*C, 1200m FZL, light to moderate S winds

Thurs: flurries, 10-15cm snow, Alp high -3*C, 1600m FZL, moderate SW winds

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.