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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 11th, 2023–Jan 12th, 2023

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky, Brandywine, Garibaldi, Homathko, Powell River, Spearhead, Tantalus, Sasquatch.

Very dangerous avalanche conditions will develop with the ongoing storm.

Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy snowfalls.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A large storm slab avalanche was triggered by a skier on Metal Dome on Tuesday on an open east-facing slope at treeline. Another skier-accidental avalanche was reported to have failed within the storm snow near Oboe on a northwest slope. A natural avalanche cycle is expected with this upcoming storm.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 35 cm of new snow has fallen into the region since Monday. Ongoing southerly and previous northerly winds have affected the storm snow in any open terrain and near ridgelines. On sheltered slopes, up to 70 cm of powder storm snow can be found. Snow is heavy and moist at lower elevations.

A thick widespread crust formed in late December is down 50 to 80 cm. In the alpine, it is thin and breakable. Professionals are concerned that small avalanches may run down to this crust and create larger-than-expected avalanches.

Near the base of the snowpack, a weak facet/crust layer from mid-November can be found and remains a concern for triggering with large loads or on thin spots. In general, the snowpack is weak, faceted, and shallow.

Weather Summary

A strong storm will affect the region early Thursday. Moderate to heavy snowfalls are expected before the subtropical flow pushes warm air and rain onto the region until Saturday.

Wednesday night

Cloudy, snow 5-10 cm, moderate southerly winds increasing to 60 km/h, freezing levels around 1200 m, low of -4C at treeline.

Thursday

Stormy 25-45 cm of snow, rain at lower elevation, moderate southerly winds gusting 60 km/h, freezing levels around 1200 m rising to 2000 m, high of -1C at treeline. 30-50 mm wet snow/rain overnight.

Friday

Stormy 15-25 cm of wet snow, rain at lower elevation, moderate southerly winds gusting 60 km/h, freezing levels around 2000 m, high of +2C at treeline.

Saturday

Cloudy, lingering flurries, moderate southwesterly winds gusting 40 km/h, freezing levels dropping to 1500 m, high of -3C at treeline.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
  • If triggered, storm slabs in-motion may step down to deeper layers and result in very large avalanches.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.