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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 18th, 2023–Jan 19th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

The new storm snow is expected to remain reactive to human triggering on Thursday, especially in wind-loaded terrain features. Give this new snow time to settle and bond before pushing into bigger and more committing terrain features.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, the Avalanche Canada field team observed several loose dry avalanches which occurred naturally during Tuesday night's storm.

The recent storm snow is expected to remain reactive on Thursday, especially in wind-exposed terrain.

Snowpack Summary

30-60 cm of new storm snow has fallen on dry, settled snow above 1500 m, a melt-freeze crust in the 1000-1500 m elevation band, and moist or wet snow below 1000 m. There is a lot of uncertainty as to how well this new snow will bond to the old surface at each of these elevation bands.

Snowpack depths at treeline are around 100 cm, tapering quickly with elevation. Although the snowpack in most forested areas below treeline remains below threshold depths for avalanches, many steep bluffs, cut-banks, and alpine-like features in the upper below treeline band are capable of producing avalanches.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Mainly clear with a few clouds, light NW wind, freezing level around 700 m.

Thursday

Increasing cloud cover with flurries beginning in the late afternoon, light NW wind becoming moderate SW in the afternoon, freezing level around 900 m.

Thursday night and Friday

Light snowfall 5-15 cm, moderate SW-W wind, freezing level around 1200 m.

Friday night and Saturday:

Snowfall 10-25 cm, strong SW wind, freezing level around 1000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.