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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 14th, 2022–Dec 15th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Coquihalla, Harrison-Fraser, Manning, Skagit.

Northerly winds have formed wind slabs in unusual areas and at lower elevations than you might typically expect. These slabs are expected to bond poorly to the underlying crust.

Keep in mind that if triggered, wind slabs have the potential to 'step down' to the weak lower snowpack, creating larger than expected avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported in the past few days at the time of publishing this forecast.

Looking forward to Thursday, northerly winds are expected to redistribute the surface snow into fresh wind slabs anywhere it remains loose and powdery.

Observations are limited this time of year. Please keep posting your observations to the MIN; it helps strengthen our information gathering.

Snowpack Summary

In deeper zones near ridges, the snowpack is around 120 to 170 cm, which is low for early December. Alpine terrain in windy areas is scoured and bare.

Surface: Large surface hoar has grown on the surface in many areas. A sun crust exists on steep solar aspects. Boot top powder in deep areas. Same old crusts, facets, and rocks on wind-scoured slopes.Upper-pack: In sheltered areas below the fresh snow is well-developed surface hoar. Generally, there's 40 to 70 cm of low-density and faceting (aka weak) snow in the upper pack.Mid-pack: November crust, with a layer of soft facets above. This is the primary weak layer, found pretty much halfway down.Lower-pack: a mixture of old crusts and facets but some suggest that these layers are a bit harder or stronger than what's found in other regions (e.g. Duffy or Hurley).

Weather Summary

Wednesday night

Clear with cloudy periods. Alpine temperatures drop to a low of -6 °C. Ridge wind north 15 km/h gusting to 45 km/h. Freezing level at valley bottom.

Thursday

Sunny with cloudy periods. Alpine temperatures reach a high of 0 °C. Ridge wind north 20 km/h gusting to 55 km/h. Freezing level rises to 1700 metres.

Friday

Sunny with cloudy periods and an alpine temperature inversion. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -1 °C. Ridge wind west 10-25 km/h. Freezing level rises to 2500 metres.

Saturday

Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -5 °C. Ridge wind southwest 15 km/h gusting to 65 km/h. Freezing level at valley bottom.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.
  • The best and safest riding will be on slopes that have soft snow without any slab properties.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.