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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 17th, 2020–Nov 18th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

A dramatic warm-up accompanied by strong S'ly winds may trigger a natural avalanche cycle today.

Choose conservative lines with limited exposure to overhead start zones.

Weather Forecast

WARM and WINDY today, then snowy Wed-Fri.

Today: rapid warming with Alp high of +5*C, FZL rising to 3000m, strong/extreme S'ly winds

Tonight: snow, 15-20cm, FZL dropping to 1500m, mod/strong SW winds

Wed: flurries, 10cm, FZL 1500m, light/mod SW winds

Thurs: flurries, 7cm, FZL 1100m, light/mod SW winds

Fri: flurries, 7cm, FZL 900m, mod SW winds

Snowpack Summary

30-60cm of snow overlies a widespread Nov 5 crust. This crust complex has weaker snow crystals (facets) above, below, and sandwiched in the middle...yes, ugly! Snowpack tests yesterday had sudden planar and/or collapses in these facets. The Nov 5th rain crust reaches as high as 2500m, while a sun crust is found higher on steep solar aspects.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity has decreased, with a few isolated storm slabs noted from Tupper and Macdonald. However, a skier accidental with a full burial occurred Saturday up Connaught Creek, where the storm slab was initiated on the Nov 5th crust. If you observe an avalanche or notable conditions, consider sharing on the AvCan MIN site.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.