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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 7th, 2014–Mar 8th, 2014

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Columbia.

More storm = more avalanche danger! There are a few other problems that we are uncertain about. Check out the new blog post here.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Saturday: Moderate westerly winds overnight and light to moderate precipitation. Heavy precipitation and strong southwest winds during the day. Freezing level rising to about 1800 metres.Sunday: Continued strong southwest winds and moderate to heavy precipitation. Freezing level rising to 2000 metres.Monday: Freezing level dropping overnight to about 1000 metres. Winds becoming light northwesterly as the precipitation ends in the morning.

Avalanche Summary

Natural storm slab avalanches were reported to be widespread across the region up to size 2.5. There were several skier controlled or accidentally triggered storm slab avalanches up to size 1.5. Explosives released storm slabs up to size 3.0, and one remotely triggered avalanche stepped down to the weak layer of basal facets near the ground (down 250 cm) on a North aspect in the alpine. Expect natural avalanche activity to continue over the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 80cm of recent storm snow overlies small surface hoar in sheltered areas, a sun crust on solar aspects and wind slabs at higher elevations. In wind exposed terrain these new accumulations have been pushed into much deeper deposits by generally moderate southwest winds. Forecast snowfall, wind and warming will add to the reactivity and destructive potential of this developing storm slab. There is ongoing concern for a mix of weak surfaces which were buried on February 10th. This persistent interface lies between 80 and 180cm below the surface, and includes surface hoar, well developed facets and a mix of hard surfaces which remain widespread at all aspects and elevations. Although natural avalanche activity has tapered-off at this interface, it remains sensitive to remote triggers in isolated terrain and may see a significant "wake-up", particularly with the increased load of the new snow and forecast rain. For the most part, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well consolidated.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.