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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 24th, 2021–Nov 25th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Be cautious with your terrain choices as we ease into the riding season. A series of warm, wet storms is expected to form fresh slabs, especially in wind exposed terrain. Keep an eye out for rapidly changing conditions as you travel.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

We are entering a stormy period. Snow will continue to fall and temperatures will rise through Friday with the incoming storm.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Freezing level rising to 1200 m, strong south wind, 5-15 cm snow expected. Snowfall amounts could be higher in the Alpine.

THURSDAY: Overcast, freezing level continues rising to 1500 m, strong south wind, 10-20 cm snow expected.

FRIDAY: Broken cloud cover at dawn, clearing in the afternoon, freezing level drops back to valley bottom, Alpine low -16. Moderate wind from the west. Trace to 8 cm snow expected as the system tapers off.

SATURDAY: Cold and clear break before the next push of precipitation. Calm winds. 

Avalanche Summary

We have very little in the way of recent observations, but a few old wind slabs have been observed in the last week. That being said, we're heading into what looks to be a pretty stormy period and folks need to watch for the formation of fresh sensitive storm slabs everywhere the riding is good.

Snowpack Summary

Wednesday night's snow and wind are expected to form fresh slabs in wind exposed terrain. 30-60 cm of snow from the last storm was impacted by significant wind in open terrain, making snowpack depths quite variable.

A widespread Nov 16th Facet/Crust interface exists, but it appears to be bonding well. The incoming storm snow will further test this layer. 

A sporadic layer of surface hoar has been reported down 70 cm producing mixed results in snowpack tests.

A couple of crusts are found in the lower snowpack: one from early November down 90 cm; and another from October near the ground.

Snowpack depths range from 75-180 at treeline, with alpine depths exceeding 250 cm. The deepest snowpacks are reported near Blue River and Valemount. Below 1500 m, snowpack depths decrease rapidly.

Early season hazards are very real right now, be wary of thin/shallow snowpacks where the crust isn't supportive, rocks, stumps, creeks, and other sharks could be hidden under a dusting of fresh snow.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.