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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 21st, 2012–Dec 22nd, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Columbia.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Strong SW ridge top winds diminishing after sunset. Light snowfall. 1500m temp: -3 Freezing level: SurfaceSunday: Moderate SW ridge top winds. 1500m temp -6. Occasional flurries. Freezing Level: SurfaceMonday: Light SE ridgetop winds. Treeline temp -8. No snow. Freezing Level: Surface

Avalanche Summary

We're starting to see the effect of the big winds midweek.  Near treeline, slab avalanches to size 2 were triggered by both vehicles and skiers.  A few bigger features in the alpine released large natural avalanches to size 3 on N through E facing slopes.  Out of the wind, there's still some sluffing in the new snow too.

Snowpack Summary

More than 120 cm of snow has accumulated this week in some areas. Various storm snow instabilities have been observed. Southerly winds picked up a bit Wednesday/Thursday evening and created new wind slabs and touchy cornices near ridgetop. The raucous sluffing is likely a thing of the past but still something to keep in mind below treeline, especially near terrain traps. The mid-pack is reported to be settling well. The late November surface hoar, down 100-160 cm (between 1500 and 2000 m), is producing moderate to no results in snowpack tests, with isolated sudden results. The early November crust, near the base of the snowpack, has produced occasional sudden results in snowpack tests. Professionals are still cautious about these lingering persistent slab problems, but the likelihood of triggering is low. Be wary of steep complex terrain with a shallow snowpack, where triggering a persistent weakness is more likely.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.