Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 25th, 2023–Jan 26th, 2023

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

Dynamic changes in temperature, reverse loading with moderate North winds, and 10-15cm of new snow is forecast by the weekend. Avoid exposing yourself to avalanche terrain, and allow the snowpack to adjust.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

Snowballing and previous loose wet activity was noted on steep west aspects near Weeping Wall.

If you're out in the hills, don't forget to post to the MIN. Every bit of information helps.

Snowpack Summary

5-10cm from this past week in the Sunwapta/Churchill areas. Less at Parkers Ridge. Variable wind slab building in alpine lee features. The upper snowpack is comprised of 20-30cm of weakening facets. Large facets and cupped depth hoar make up the deep persistent weakness and may be near the surface in shallow snowpack areas. HS depths vary from 40-110cm.

Weather Summary

A westerly flow will continue with isolated flurries through the region, and up to 10-14cm by Friday. Freezing levels to 1900m, w/ light rain possible at lower elevations. Winds will be light/moderate westerly.

Detailed weather forecasts from Avalanche Canada: https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast

Terrain and Travel Advice

In times of uncertainty conservative terrain choices are our best defense.
Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.