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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 8th, 2023–Feb 9th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Esplanade, Jordan, North Selkirk, Shuswap, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, Kokanee, North Okanagan, Retallack, Valhalla, Whatshan.

Continue to choose conservative terrain and watch for signs of instability as winds and solar input promote slab development within the storm snow.

Avoid shallow, rocky snowpack areas where triggering the deep persistent weak layer is still possible.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, a few size 1 skier accidentals storm slab avalanches were reported 20-40 cm deep. Numerous natural avalanches were reported primarily on north and east aspects where storm snow and wind created deep pockets of slab. Explosive control produced numerous storm slab results to size 3.5.

On Monday, A skier accidental avalanche was observed in the Sun Peaks backcountry. The avalanche was a size 2 and is suspected to have run on a weak layer of surface hoar from late January. Several natural storm slab and wind slab avalanches were reported, size 1-2.5, on east and north aspects at treeline and alpine.

On Sunday, several natural slab avalanches were observed in the region, size 1-2.5, on all aspects between 1600 m and 2400 m. A size 2 skier accidental storm slab avalanche was reported at upper treeline. The avalanche was 30 cm deep and fractured on an unsupported roll.

Snowpack Summary

Incremental loading has brought storm snow totals through the last week to 40-80 cm. Particularly in the Monashees a thin rain crust may be found 20-30 cm down within the storm snow. Below the recent snow is a crust that extends up to 1800 m in the northern part of the region and up to 2000 m further south. This crust is buried about 40 to 100 cm deep and may host small facets on the crust.

Deeper in the snowpack two layers of surface hoar which formed in early January are 60 to 120 cm deep. These weak layers are still on our radar, although snowpack tests are indicating they may be strengthening.

Large and weak facets from November are near the base of the snowpack, which continue to produce very large avalanches in the region.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Clear skies. Ridge wind southwest 20 km/h gusting 40 km/h. Alpine temperature low of -6 C. Freezing level valley bottom.

Thursday

Sunny with cloudy periods in the afternoon and isolated flurries for the northern Monashees, 1-3 cm accumulation. Southwesterly ridge wind 20-40 km/h increasing to 60 km/h in the evening. Alpine temperature high of -5 °C. Freezing level 1000-1200 m.

Friday

Partly cloudy with isolated flurries, 2-5 cm accumulation. Southwesterly ridge wind 40 km/h easing to 20 km/h in the afternoon. Alpine temperature high of -4 °C. Freezing level 1000-1300 m.

Saturday

Partly cloudy with isolated flurries, 2-3 cm accumulation. Westerley ridge wind 20 km/h increasing to 40 km/h in the afternoon. Alpine temperature high of -5 °C. Freezing level 1000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Avoid shallow snowpack areas, rock outcroppings and steep convex terrain where triggering is most likely.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.