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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2024–Jan 17th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Banff Yoho Kootenay, Little Yoho, Banff, East Side 93N, Kootenay, Lake Louise, LLSA, Sunshine, West Side 93N, Field.

New snow alert! Looks like a refresh coming our way as moist air from the west collides with cold air from the east. This setup can sometimes result in epic snowfalls, but this time it looks like max 30 cm but cold, dry and light wind. Soft slabs are expected and the avalanche danger will rise. Thursday looks like the best day to ski.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche control teams in Lake Louise and Sunshine Village both reported explosive-triggered windslabs up to size 2 at upper elevations, 30 cm deep fracture lines. Remote triggering was occurring in Lake Louise where hard windslabs were reported. The Parks Canada field team was on the Banff/Jasper highway and did not observe any new slab avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Expect 5-15 cm of light, dry new snow with minimal wind effect, except at higher elevations, where some windslabs may form. This could overload the Dec 31 surface hoar/sun crust, which will be down about 30-40 cm and may begin to react as the storm accumulates. This storm is unlikely to overload the buried crusts from Dec 22nd and Dec 5th that exist as high as 2350 m. The base of the snowpack remains weak, as the snowpack is well below average.

Weather Summary

A shift in weather patterns is underway as a westerly flow of moist Pacific collides with the cold Arctic air over the Rockies. Snow and warming begin Tuesday night and continue through Wednesday, ending early Thursday. Models call for 10 cm, but this could be up to 25 cm in isolated locations. Thursday goes very cold again (-25), but winds should remain light NE through the period. A proper warm-up begins on Friday.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.