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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 30th, 2024–Jan 31st, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

High freezing levels and warm temperatures are maintaining elevated avalanche hazard.

Human triggered avalanches are likely until cooler weather locks in the snowpack.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

Artillery control on Monday night produced numerous loose and wet slab avalanches running full path up to sz 3.5 throughout the highway corridor. A widespread natural avalanche cycle on Sunday and Monday was also observed in the backcountry with numerous wet/loose avalanches to sz 3 observed at all elevations/aspects, gouging deeply in confined gullies. A remote trigger adjacent to the west end of Glacier NP resulted in a sz 3.5 running from the Alpine to valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

Snow melt and rain has soaked the upper snowpack making it weak and easy to trigger.

A sun crust (Jan 3), down 60-80cm, can be found at and below Tree-line on S-SW aspects. Recent avalanches have been stepping down to this layer and deeper within confined gullies.

The Dec 1 surface hoar layer, down ~120cm, is decomposing.

Weather Summary

Warm air from the south west will maintain elevated freezing levels and high temperatures for the next several days. Gradual cooling will begin on Friday.

Wed: Mix of sun and cloud. High 2°C. Light gusting moderate SE winds. Freezing level (FZL) 2600m.

Thurs: Cloudy with isolated showers or flurries. High 0°C. Winds S light. FZL 2200m.

Fri: Cloudy with isolated flurries. High 1°C. FZL 2000m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.

Problems

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.