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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 25th, 2025–Mar 26th, 2025

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Esplanade, Jordan, North Selkirk, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold.

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Large avalanches may run into the valley bottom from the alpine.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

A large avalanche cycle occurred on Monday and likely into Tuesday. With many storm slabs stepping down to deep weak layers, causing very large avalanches, up to size 4.

In the southeast of the region on Monday, there was a fatal avalanche incident. A group was hit by a large (size 3) natural persistent slab avalanche.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 50 cm of recent snow is rapidly warming and expected to see the sun for the first time. The upper snowpack is expected to become moist and wet.

There is a significant concern for avalanches in motion to step down to deeper, persistent weak layers. These consist of surface hoar, facets, or a crust:

  • Early-March layer down 80–120 cm. This is the primary persistent layer of concern.

  • Mid-February & Late-January layers down 100–200 cm. Warm temperatures and sunshine may trigger these deep layers. Likewise, large triggers, like cornice fall or avalanches in motion, could step down.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night

Cloudy with 0 to 10 mm/cm of rain/snow. 20 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level 2400 m.

Wednesday

A mix of sun and cloud. 20 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 3 °C. Freezing level 3000 m.

Thursday

Cloudy with 10 to 30 mm/cm of rain/snow. 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level falling to 2000 m.

Friday

Mostly cloudy with 5 to 15 mm/cm of rain/snow. 10 to 20 km/h southeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 1800 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain with no overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.
  • Even brief periods of direct sun could produce natural avalanches.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Avoid the runout zones of avalanche paths. Avalanches could run full path.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.