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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 5th, 2025–Mar 6th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Flathead, Lizard.

Continue to choose simple, mellow terrain, and give the snowpack more time to adjust to the new load.

Be especially cautious on high north-facing slopes, and on sunny slopes during warming.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Wed: Explosives avalanche control produced several small to large (up to size 2) storm slab avalanches in north through east facing alpine terrain. Additionally, our field team reported numerous small dry loose avalanches out of steep slopes facing the sun.

Looking forward: Avalanches on buried weak layers may be difficult to trigger, but if one is triggered, it is likely to be large and destructive.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 25 cm of recent snow is settling on a widespread melt-freeze crust that exists on all sun-affected slopes, and as high as 1700 m on shaded slopes.

A weak layer of preserved surface hoar or facets from late January is buried 80 to 130 cm. This weak layer was active during the warmup and remains a concern where there is no thick, supportive crust under the new snow.

The lower snowpack is generally well-settled and strong.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear. 5 to 10 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling to valley bottom. Treeline low around -6 °C.

Thursday

Sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon. 10 - 20 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 1700 m. Treeline high around -3 °C.

Friday

Sunny. 7 to 15 km/h west ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling to valley bottom overnight, rising to 1700 m through the day.

Saturday

Sunny. 25 to 35 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling to near valley bottom overnight, rising to 1700 m through the day.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Use small, low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling, and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.