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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 11th, 2020–Feb 12th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Watch for wind loaded pockets, especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain. Caution with travel around cornices too, best to give them a wide berth.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Aside from a few bouts of potentially strong wind, we continue to be in a rather benign weather pattern at least until Sunday when there is a hint of another storm...

TUESDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at valley bottom, moderate north/northwest wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible.

WEDNESDAY: Scattered cloud cover initially with clearing expected in the afternoon, freezing level near valley bottom, light variable wind, trace of precipitation possible.

THURSDAY: A few clouds at dawn building to overcast by sundown, freezing level rising to around 1300 m in the afternoon, moderate to strong southwest wind, trace of precipitation possible.

FRIDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level rising to around 1300 m in the afternoon, moderate to strong west/southwest wind, trace of precipitation possible.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday control work produced a cornice failure from a northeast facing ridge, a couple of size 2 wind slabs on a northwest facing feature at 2000 m and small stubborn wind slabs to size 1.  

On Sunday no new natural avalanches were reported but smaller wind slab avalanches to size 1.5 were human triggered on northeast facing features around 1900 m with an average depth of 25 cm.

On Saturday storm slab avalanches to size 2 were widespread. They ran naturally and were intentionally triggered by avalanche control work on all aspects.  

Fragile cornices and one large cornice fall have been reported over the past 10 days.

Snowpack Summary

The weekend storm produced 15 to 25 cm of warm storm snow. This snow has been formed into slabs in wind exposed terrain by previously strong winds that were largely out of the northeast. This snow rests on previously wind affected snow and a thick rain crust that exists up to roughly 2100 m. In many areas this capping crust extends to mountaintops. Sheltered areas now have 15-30 cm of snow above the crust. The bottom 20 cm of the snowpack consists of basal facets and decomposing crusts that have not been an active avalanche problem since December, but could reemerge as a problem after sustained warming.

Terrain and Travel

  • Caution around slopes that are exposed to cornices overhead.
  • Small avalanches can have serious consequences in extreme terrain. Carefully evaluate your line for wind slab hazard before you commit to it.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.