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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 28th, 2019–Jan 29th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Storm snow from last week has been redistributed into pockets of wind slab at treeline and in the alpine. These are likely becoming less reactive, but will still need careful management in wind loaded terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - The weather pattern is stable

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT - Clear periods / light southwest winds / alpine low temperature near -10TUESDAY - Mainly sunny with cloudy periods / southwest winds 10-30 km/h / alpine high temperature near -7WEDNESDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / southwest winds 10-30 km/h / alpine high temperature near -7 THURSDAY - Cloudy with sunny periods / southwest winds, 20-30 km/h / alpine high temperature near -4

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Sunday.On Saturday, a size 1 human triggered avalanche was reported on a northeast aspect around treeline. On Friday, a human triggered size 1 avalanche was reported on a northeast aspect at 1900 m. This avalanche reportedly occurred on the surface hoar layer that is buried 10-30 cm.

Snowpack Summary

About 5 cm of new snow likely sits on a a crust below 1500 m, and on sun-exposed slopes at all elevations. Sun-exposed slopes may become moist during the day.15-35 cm of snow is sitting on a weak layer of surface hoar (feathery crystals), which is most prominent around treeline. On sun-exposed slopes, the surface hoar may be sitting on a sun crust, and below treeline it may be sitting on a melt-freeze crust on all aspects.In shallow snowpack areas, the base of the snowpack is composed of facets (sugary snow). In deeper snowpack areas, the middle and lower portions of the snowpack appear to be generally strong.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.