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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 16th, 2015–Dec 17th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Great riding conditions can be found but large human triggered avalanches are still possible, especially at elevations just below the tree-line.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: no new snow is expected, mainly light to moderate south winds, remaining cool, -10 at 1500m. FRIDAY: Light snow fall, up to 10cm, southerly winds becoming westerly through the day, still cool. SATURDAY: no new snow is expected, southerly winds, cool.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity appears to have tapered off since the weekend. Avalanche professionals are reporting sluffing in steep terrain and in response to ski cutting.

Snowpack Summary

It sounds like good riding conditions out there. There is some localized wind effect in the new snow at ridgeline. Bellow treeline a layer of surface hoar can be found buried down 80 to 130cm. It is of greatest concern in open features such as cut blocks and old burns at elevations between 1400 and 1800m. Snow pit tests on this interface have been widely variable producing sudden planar, resistant planar and sudden collapse results. The mid and lower portions of the snowpack are reported to be mainly well settled.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.