It is a great day to head to the ski hill! Currently, a natural avalanche cycle is in full-swing at Rogers Pass.
Weather Forecast
The intense snowfall rates and moderate/strong SW winds will ease later this morning, with scattered flurries in the late afternoon/evening. Another system should arrive tomorrow morning, bringing 15-25cm of snow. Temperatures will rise slightly with arrival of the snow, and winds will also increase to moderate/strong from the west.
Snowpack Summary
15-25cm of higher density snow sits over 35-40cm of very low density snow. This has created a slightly upside-down snowpack that is very touchy, considering it all sits on a "surface hoar/crust/facet" sandwich that is easily failing in snowpack tests. The mid-pack is well-settled with a fair amount of faceting from the recent cold snap.
Avalanche Summary
Many avalanche paths in the highway corridor this morning showed numerous natural avalanches at all elevations running onto the fans. The same can be expected in the backcountry. Avalanches will be running fast and far, so give avalanche run-out zones a wide berth.
Confidence
Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Dry
Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.