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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 7th, 2015–Jan 8th, 2015

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Over 70cm of storm snow along with 8-12hrs of moderate winds have formed storm slabs at and above treeline.  Make conservative terrain choices.

Weather Forecast

Light winds, warming temperatures and a current temperature inversion will continue through today.  A clearing trend is forecast for Friday with temperatures steady below zero.

Snowpack Summary

Over 70cm of storm snow, warming alpine temps and 8-12hrs of moderate S through SW winds make for building storm slabs and touchy conditions. The storm snow will be settling into a cohesive slab with a questionable bond to the old surface. The Dec 17th surface hoar layer, most prevalent at treeline elevations, may be reawakening with this load.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche control yesterday produced numerous size 2 to 3.5 slides with most slides coming in at size 2.5. The larger slides were digging down to the Dec 17th layer.  A natural avalanche cycle had occurred early in the morning of January 6th with slides up to 2.5 in size initiating in the storm snow at alpine elevations. 

Confidence

Problems

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.