Strong solar effect will weaken the snowpack at all elevations today. The buried surface hoar continues to be easily triggered by riders although there is little natural activity to indicate it's sensitivity.
Weather Forecast
Mostly sunny today with some convective cloud cover building around mid day. Freezing levels going to 2300m with alpine temps warming to 3 deg. Light flurries expected tomorrow before a warm ridge brings very warm air to the region Friday night and through the weekend
Snowpack Summary
Crust on solar aspectsfrom yesterdays warming will break down with forecasted temperatures. Up to 50cm of snow has settled into a slab sitting a crust on solar aspects and surface hoar on sheltered north and east aspects. Below 2200m a moist or wet layer that persists down 50cm will weaken rapidly with the forecasted warm temps.
Avalanche Summary
2 size 2 naturals were observed along the highway on Tuesday, triggered by windloading. On Sunday, skiers triggered slab avalanches to size 1.5 in the Tree Triangle gully at ~2000m, 30-40cm deep, 20m wide and 75m long. In the surrounding region there are reports of cornices triggering slabs, and skier remote's and accidentals to size 2.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.