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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 26th, 2014–Nov 27th, 2014

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Winter storm conditions have produced a dangerous storm slab which sits on a touchy weak layer.  Now is a good time to avoid avalanche terrain and stick to low angle slopes.

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

A warm, moist Pacific storm will continue to bring moderate-heavy precipitation to the southern interior on Thursday. The Cariboo region will receive the precipitation but is not expected to see a spike in temperatures like the south. An Arctic high pressure system should arrive on Friday morning bringing cold, sunny conditions for the weekend. Weds. Night/Thursday: Precipitation 25-35mm, treeline temp around -5, ridgetop wind moderate-strong SWThurs. Night: Precipitation 10-20mm, ridgetop wind moderate-strong SWFriday: A mix of sun and cloud, light flurries possible, treeline temp around -15, ridgetop wind easing during the daySaturday: Mostly sunny, treeline temperature around -20C, ridgetop wind light NE

Avalanche Summary

We haven't had any new reports since the weekend. If you have any observations, please send them to [email protected]. On Saturday, several small natural avalanches were observed in the Raft Mountain area. Recent observations from the Rogers Pass area where the conditions are expected to be similar include widespread natural activity up to size 3.

Snowpack Summary

As much as 1 m of recent storm snow sits on the mid-November drought layer (facets, surface hoar, and/or a sun crust on steep southerly slopes). 20-30cm below this layer is a thick rain crust with weak facets on top. Snowpack data from the Cariboo region is very limited at the moment but I expect these layers are reacting similarly to the North Columbia as the formation conditions were generally the same. In the Rogers Pass area, the storm slab is poorly bonded to the mid-November layer and snowpack tests suggest it can be triggered easily with wide propagations possible. In some tests, the deeper crust/facet layer was also failing and it is possible that avalanches may step down to this layer.Recent strong and variable winds have probably created dense wind slabs in exposed terrain and resulted in variable snow distribution. At lower elevations, expect travel to be difficult and potentially hazardous as many early season hazards are exposed or lightly buried (stumps, logs, rocks, open creeks, etc).

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.