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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 7th, 2023–Jan 8th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Blue River, Premier, Grohman, Clemina, Esplanade, Jordan, North Monashee, North Selkirk, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, Kokanee, Retallack, Valhalla, Whatshan.

Conditions are still tricky with low confidence in buried weak layers.

Avoid terrain features where the snowpack varies from thick to thin, weak layers are more easily triggered here. Check out the new Forecasters' Blog for more details on managing this seasons challenging snowpack.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Significant avalanche activity was reported throughout the Columbia's and Western Purcells from Monday January 1st to Thursday the 5th. Persistent and deep persistent slabs were naturally and human triggered up to size 3, failing on the weak layers described in the Snowpack Summary from 70-200 cm deep. Avalanches occurred on all aspects, and mostly between 1800 and 2500 m in elevation.

Avalanche activity has tapered off in recent days, a promising trend, however these layers are likely still reactive to human triggers and capable of producing large avalanches. Check out these MIN reports from Joss Mountain, & North McCrea Mountain for an idea of recent conditions and features of concern.

Small slabs in wind loaded features have also been triggered by riders, which have the potential of stepping down to these deeper weak layers.

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack consists of up to 50 cm of settling snow, with a small surface hoar layer found up to 10 cm deep. A crust may exist on sun affected slopes. Consistent southerly winds are redistributing snow into wind loaded features at higher elevations. New wind slabs may sit over the layer of surface hoar and/or crust.

The upper snowpack is generally settled and well-bonded, however buried weak layers in the mid and lower snowpack continue to be a concern although avalanche activity appears to be tapering off:

  • A layer of crust, facets and/or surface hoar buried around Christmas sits 40-70 cm deep.

  • A layer of large and weak facets from mid November sits near the ground.

This year's snowpack is weaker than usual, as described in our Forecasters' blog.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Cloudy with flurries possible. Moderate to strong southerly winds. Freezing level around 500 m.

Sunday

Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulations up to 2 cm. Moderate southerly wind. Alpine high of -3 °C. Freezing levels 800-1000 m.

Monday

Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulations of 5-10 cm. Moderate southerly wind. Alpine high of -3 °C. Freezing levels 800-1000 m.

Tuesday

Clearing skies. Freezing levels reach 600 m, alpine highs of -4 °C. Light southerly winds.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.