Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2024–Jan 17th, 2024

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

Most of the new snow fell to the north and east of the region. Investigate how the unconsolidated snowpack reacts to this new load before you commit to your ski line or ice climb.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Loose dry avalanches up to size 2 in very steep rocky alpine terrain were noted over the past few days. Some are scrubbing to ground. They do not appear to be initiating any deeper weakness' in the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

About 10cm of snow fell in the north and east section of the park with about 3cm around the Parker Ridge area. Tree line snowpack depth is an average of 45-75cm. The snowpack is weak and largely unsupportive after this cold weather.

Weather Summary

Wednesday

Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries.

Precipitation: Trace.

Alpine temperature: High -18 °C.

Ridge wind east: 10 km/h.

Thursday

A mix of sun and cloud.

Precipitation: Nil.

Alpine temperature: Low -25 °C, High -15 °C.

Light ridge wind.

The Mountain Weather Forecast is available at Avalanche Canada https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast

Terrain and Travel Advice

Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.

Problems

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.