Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 31st, 2024–Feb 1st, 2024

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Kananaskis, Bow Valley, Highwood Pass, North 40, Spray - KLakes.

Heat has, and will continue to weaken the snowpack until the next cool off this week-end. Right now its probably best to focus on non avalanche related activities.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

No field trip today, but its expected that the loose wet avalanches have continued through the day.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temps are making the snowpack isothermal in lower elevation areas and making the top 10-30cm moist at treeline and above. Light overnight freezes are helping, but they just can't compete with the daytime highs. Every day the snowpack is becoming weaker and weaker. This warmth induced rapid settlement is overloading the weak basal facets, and in some areas triggering full depth avalanches. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended at this time.

Weather Summary

It's not very often that we discuss freezing levels in early February...yet here we are. Tomorrow will start at -4 and rise to +2 by mid afternoon. Food for thought: as I write this Mud lake is sitting at an impossible +7! Tomorrow could be much warmer than predicted. The rest of the weather news isn't much more inspiring. Light winds from the south, broken to overcast cloud cover and no snow.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.
Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.