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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2020–Feb 16th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Overnight snowfall is uncertain so be ready to dial back your terrain selection if it exceeds forecast amounts. Fresh snow will be eager to shed from steep slopes that see strong sunshine.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

Saturday night: Cloudy with flurries bringing 5-15 cm of new snow. Moderate southwest winds.

Sunday: Diminishing cloud and easing flurries bringing up to 5 cm of new snow in the morning. Light northwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -9.

Monday: Mainly sunny. Light west winds. Alpine high temperatures around -9.

Tuesday: Sunny. Light west winds. Alpine high temperatures around -10.

Avalanche Summary

Slightly enhanced snowfall over Thursday night brought more active avalanche conditions to the region on Friday. Reports showed several natural and explosives triggerd storm slabs reached size 2, with crown fracture depths of 20-40 cm, showing some evidence of wind loading. Northeast aspects above 1900 metres featured most prominently. Several natural cornice falls were another stand-out feature.

New avalanche observations from Tuesday were limited to a few small (size 1) wind slabs able to be skier triggered in crossloaded gully features. Observations into the alpine were limited by poor visibility. Wednesday's reports showed a transition to small dry loose releases.

Looking forward, another night of snowfall

Snowpack Summary

10-20 cm of snow from the past week has been adding to wind-affected snow and old wind slabs in exposed terrain while adding to older, settled storm snow in sheltered areas. Collectively 25-50 cm of snow now overlies a thick rain crust that exists up to roughly 2100 m. In many areas this capping crust extends to mountaintops. 

The bottom 20 cm of the snowpack consists of basal facets and decomposing crusts that have not been an active avalanche problem since December, but could reemerge as a problem after sustained warming.

Terrain and Travel

  • Seek out sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been wind-affected.
  • Caution around slopes that are exposed to cornices overhead.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and sun exposure.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.