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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 27th, 2020–Feb 28th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

The February 22nd surface hoar layer is becoming more reactive as rising temperatures, wind and increased snow load encourage slab formation.

Weather Forecast

A frontal system crosses the province bringing mainly cloudy skies and isolated flurries with up to 5cm of accumulation. Ridge winds will be SW 25-35 km/h. The freezing level is forecast to climb as high as 1500m with an alpine high of -4 C.

Precipitation is expected to continue with the arrival of a pacific low on Friday with 15cm by Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

Strong southerly winds and warmer temperatures have contributed to the formation of a soft slab on top of the February 22nd surface hoar layer, buried 35-40cm. This layer is widespread up to 2300m. On solar aspects the surface hoar sits atop a crust. Incremental loading through February has created an otherwise benign mid-pack.

Avalanche Summary

An isolated natural avalanche cycle was observed in the highway corridor on the steep noth facing slopes of Mt Macdonald yesterday morning. Several small size 1.5 to 2.0 were observed, terminating near the beginning of the avalanche path fans. Numerous reports of small skier-triggered avalanches on the February 22nd layer in the surrounding areas.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.