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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 2nd, 2022–Apr 3rd, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Heavy snowfall and strong winds are expected to quickly raise the danger to HIGH on Sunday. 

A solar-triggered avalanche cycle is also possible on Sunday afternoon if the sky clears and the sun is strong.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Stormy conditions are expected between Saturday night and Monday night expect for a brief period late Sunday afternoon when a break between systems is expected. Snowfall amounts are uncertain with weather models showing substantial variability. 

Saturday Night: Snowfall 10-25 cm, strong SW wind, freezing level low around 1000 m. 

Sunday: Snowfall 20-35 cm, sunny breaks in the late-afternoon, strong SW wind easing in the afternoon, freezing level high around 1300 m. 

Sunday night and Monday: Snowfall 40-60 cm, strong to extreme SW wind, freezing level high around 1200 m. 

Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud, moderate W wind easing in the afternoon, freezing level high around 1200 m.

Avalanche Summary

Early reports from Saturday include an explosive-controlled size 2 cornice which triggered a size 1 storm slab on the slope below. 

On Friday, explosives triggered a couple size 1-2 cornices. One of these cornices triggered a slab avalanche on a northwest aspect in the alpine which likely failed on the mid-March interface down 50 cm.

Snowpack Summary

The new storm snow will continue to bury a strong, supportive crust which extends to mountain top on solar aspects and to around 2200 m on northerly aspects. Strong southwest wind will be redistributing the new storm snow in exposed high elevation terrain forming touchy wind slabs.

Below the crust, the upper snowpack consists of a number of crust/facet/surface hoar interfaces buried in March that seem to have bonded well during the recent warm weather. 

The middle and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Even brief periods of direct sun could produce natural avalanches.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.