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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 28th, 2022–Nov 29th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Flathead, Lizard, Bull.

Because of the thin, soft, early season snowpack the best riding will also be where avalanches are most likely. Avoid overhead hazards, keep slope angles moderate, and stick to places sheltered from the wind.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday there was a natural avalanche cycle in the Lizard Range, mostly size 2 but up to size 3. Avalanches were running within the storm snow but the odd sympathetic release suggests facets or surface hoar at the bottom of the recent snow (see Snowpack Section). This type of problem may linger.

Snowpack Summary

Upper snowpack: consists of the 45 to 60 cm of snow over the past week. At the bottom of this recent snow is a layer of surface hoar. Take a look under the hood from Harvey Pass. ESPeters10 - thanks for sharing.Northeast winds (reverse loading) created pockets of wind slab in some non-typical places.

Lower Snowpack: sugary faceted snow and with a rain crust just above the ground.

Snowpack depths at treeline are 45 to 75 cm, and in the alpine 65 to 125 cm.

Weather Summary

Monday NightLight northeast wind, temps in the minus teens to twenty. Dry.

TuesdayDry, minus twenties style cold, light variable wind becoming southwesterly late in the day.

Wednesday

Weak disturbance means overcast, southwesterly light to moderate wind, warming temperatures to near -10 C and 5 to 15 cm of snow. Wind is forecast to strengthen late in the day and overnight!

Thursday

Light to moderate southwesterly wind, temperatures in the minus teens, trace to 10 cm of snow.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.