Avalanche forecast

South Columbia

Nov 28 – 29, 2015Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Warming temperatures may push the danger ratings higher, especially on solar aspects. A big THANK YOU ! to all those posting on the MIN

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Northerly winds have formed wind slabs on south aspects where we don't usually see them.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–4
    The warm temperatures at upper elevations may significantly warm the snowpack on solar aspects and create a loose wet hazard, Use caution on sun-drenched slopes at this time.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–5
    Weak-facetted snow at the base of the snowpack may exist on north aspects in shallow areas. An avalanche on this layer could be large and destructive.

Avalanche Summary

Some snowballing from warm temperatures on steep solar aspects, and small loose, dry snow sluffing on steep north facing slopes

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

An arctic high continues to dominate the weather pattern over western Canada. Blue skies and dry conditions are not forecast to move out of the area until Tuesday or Wednesday next week. In the meantime, an above-freezing layer (AFL) of air will pass through the region between 1500 and 3000m bringing temperatures in that elevation band to as high as +5c., and possibly higher on solar aspects. Arctic air pooling in the valley bottoms will keep the temperatures well below freezing until the next storm system flushes out the cold air.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack is extremely variable at this time, with wind scoured North facing slopes at treeline and above. South facing slopes have wind slabs at tree line and above, and may be hiding surface hoar from the previous spell of cold clear weather. Surface facetting has been observed in the region as a result of the recent cold weather and clear skies, and there will be surface hoar building in sheltered locations. There are a number of surface hoar layers now buried in the snowpack that at present seem to be unreactive, with the most recent having been buried on Nov 24th.In shallow snowpack areas, especially on northern aspects, there may be a weak facetted layer at the base of the snowpack.

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