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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 31st, 2017–Apr 1st, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia.

A complex mix of avalanche problems is maintaining elevated danger in the region. The potential for a storm slab or cornice release to trigger a deeper persistent slab remains a real concern for Saturday.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Friday night: Flurries bringing up to 5 cm of new snow. Light to moderate south winds. Saturday: Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow. Light to moderate southwest winds. Freezing level to 1700 metres with alpine temperatures of -4.Sunday: Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries bringing up to 5 cm of new snow. Light west winds. Freezing level to 1400 metres with alpine temperatures of -6.Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. Light northwest winds. Freezing level to 1500 metres with alpine temperatures of -5.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Thursday include numerous observations of storm slabs releasing naturally from Size 1-2.5 throughout the region. Natural triggers (including natural cornice fall) featured prominently in reports. Crown fractures generally ranged from 30-40 cm and northeast to northwest aspects were the most active.On Wednesday, numerous storm slabs up to size 2.5 were observed. Several size 1 storm and wind slabs were also reactive to rider triggering.

Snowpack Summary

30-50 cm of recent storm snow has accumulated at upper elevations. The new snow is dry up high and moist from 1800 m and below. This now brings 80-120 cm of accumulated snow which overlies a rain crust below 2000 m or a sun crust on solar aspects at higher elevations. New wind slabs are developing on leeward slopes and behind terrain features and large, fragile cornices exist along ridgelines. At higher elevations, the February weak layers are down 150-190 cm and woke up during last week's storm with many avalanches stepping down to them. The deep mid-December facet layer and November rain crust both still linger near the bottom of the snowpack and a few avalanches and cornice falls have also stepped down to these layers last week resulting in some very large full depth avalanches. These layers remain a real concern while touchier storm slabs and cornices continue to present the risk of acting as a trigger for deeper weaknesses.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.