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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 5th, 2020–Feb 6th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

At upper elevations the new snow will create fresh wind slabs and be sensitive to human triggers. At mid and lower elevations most of the forecast precipitation will fall in form of rain due to the warm temperatures.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain. Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday Night: Flurries, accumulation up to 5 cm, moderate to strong northwest wind, treeline high -1 C, freezing level 1100 m.

Thursday: Mix of rain and snow, accumulation 10-20 cm, moderate to strong westerly wind, treeline high 0 C, freezing level rising to 1500 m.

Friday: Mainly cloudy with flurries starting in the afternoon, accumulation up to 10 cm, light to moderate southwest wind, treeline high 0 C, freezing level 1200 m.

Saturday: Mix of sun and cloud, accumulation 10-15 cm, light northerly wind, treeline high -2 C, freezing level 1000 m.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous small (size 1) slab avalanches were triggered by humans on Tuesday. Several avalanches released on the crust which was buried by the recent new snow.

Snowpack Summary

20-30 cm of new snow sits on a thick rain crust. The snowpack below the crust has likely switched from moist or wet snow to a solid crust with recent cold temperatures. Snowpack depths are suspected to be in the range of 150-250 cm around the peaks of the north shore mountains (1400 m), tapering quickly with elevation to almost nothing below 1000 m.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.