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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 25th, 2020–Dec 26th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

No new avalanches have been reported in the past couple days We would like to remind folks to send in their snow, avalanche and weather info directly to this bulletin. Please send your snow stories to [email protected] as your info greatly helps us write more accurate bulletins for everyone’s safety. It does not have to be technical snow terms… just write in your own words what you saw and how it all went out there. The great news is that, if you report to us directly, you will often get contacted by our on duty forecaster to discuss your info so it's a great two way learning experience.

Past Weather

No new snow has fallen since last Monday. Winds have been moderate to strong from the SE and some snow transport has been seen loading on to N to W slopes at treeline and alpine elevations. Luckily temps did not get as high as the weather models had predicted so we are not cursed with a very nasty widespread melt freeze crust.

Weather Forecast

Santa brings a snow storm to the mountains for everyone!!! Significant new snow will begin to fall early Friday (Christmas) morning and will slowly taper off by Sunday. The storm comes in warm and leaves cold. Southern regions may even see the first bit of precipitation in the form of rain or a rain snow mix but it will soon change over to snow. Winds at the beginning of this storm will be high, but will also taper off as the storm travels through. Same with temperatures... warm getting colder.Friday: 10 to 25 cm of snow, Strong easing to moderate SE to SW winds, Temps for 1500 m +2 to -1, Freezing levels 1800 to 850 m.Saturday: 5 to 15 cm of snow, Strong to moderate SE to SW winds, Temps for 1500 m -1 to -5, Freezing levels 1000 to 900 m. Sunday: 3 to 10 cm of snow, Moderate to light variable direction winds, Temps for 1500 m +1 to -4, Freezing levels 1200 to 600 m.

Terrain Advice

Significant amounts of new snow will fall Friday and Saturday so avoid loaded slopes during this time. It will be a great time to stick to low angled terrain or play amongst the trees. Wind loaded slopes on N to W aspects will be particularly dangerous.

Snowpack Summary

No new snow has fallen since the last bulletin came out. The weather since Monday has also left us with very variable surface conditions which the new snow, forecast for Friday and Saturday, will land on. Luckily the new snow comes in a bit warm so it will have some ability to bond to the old surfaces. The storm also tapers off with colder temps, so we should be left with nice light dry snow over warmer dense snow (a right side up cake as we snow nerds call it). This layering set us up well for a somewhat more stable but still fun snowpack.

Snowpack Details

  • Surface: Thin sun crust on solar slopes. ridgetop windward stripped down to old crust, lees small windslabs. powder in the shade
  • Upper: Storm snow from Mondays event (one shear layer noted in tests) with a few thin decaying rain crusts below.
  • Mid: Well settled old snow with a beefy crust from that warm spell we had.
  • Lower: Well settled

Confidence

High - Many days of field data and weather models in agreement

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.