Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Feb 14 – 15, 2021
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Archived · expired 6 years ago

Avalanche danger

Mon
Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low

Highlights

The facet-fest continues, and the snow pack continues to loose strength.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Recent windslab activity has been noted in high elevation windloaded features. It seems to require a large trigger such as cornice failures to initiate or potentially a shallow location where a skiers weight may be enough.

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Cold temperatures are making cornices brittle and prone to failure. Keep a healthy distance away both when traveling below, or near corniced features.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Surface snow continues to lose cohesion and structure making specific areas susceptible to light triggers like direct solar influence, and excitable riders. Sluff awareness and management will be very important in steep and/or confined lines.

Weather Forecast

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. Precipitation: Nil. Alpine temperature: High -15 °C. Ridge wind southwest: 10 km/h.

Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. Precipitation: Nil. Alpine temperature: Low -17 °C, High -9 °C. Ridge wind west: 10 km/h.

Snowpack Summary

The cold weather continues to promote facetting of the upper 40cm. The mid-pack is showing signs of losing strength with the prolonged arctic influence, especially where it is shallow. Widespread wind effect in the alpine and upper tree line.

Avalanche Summary

Road patrol on Feb 13 observed numerous Natural Loose Dry Avalanches up to size 1.5, starting steep terrain, but running the distance in terrain over 30 deg. One size 2 serac triggered wind slab, up to a meter deep, was also directly observed.

Confidence

Regions covered