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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 15th, 2022–Jan 16th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper.

Careful evaluation of wind slabs is recommended for Lee slopes.

The potential for large avalanches remains a low probability would be a high consequence event likely occurring on a persistent weak layer down 40-60cm.

Maligne Lake road remains closed.

Weather Forecast

Sunday will be cloudy with flurries, maybe 4cm of snow, -7C, and light SW winds. Monday might bring 12cm of snow, -7 to -3C, light gusting moderate SW winds, and 1600m freezing level. Tuesday is cloudy with flurries, little snow accumlation, -14 to -9, and light winds.

Snowpack Summary

25 cm of snow from the Jan 12th storm is settling in with slightly warmer temperatures. The top 40 cm is compromised of Wind Slabs particularly in open areas above Tree Line. The mid snowpack is faceted with a persistent weak layer buried 40-70cm down. Basal facets and depth hoar can be found at the base of snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

Saturdays Icefields patrol had good alpine visibility but no new naturals were noted. Below treeline showed some limited activity from the past 48 hours but no large avalanches. Jan 13th explosives control resulted in several wind and persistent slab avalanches up to size 2.5.

Confidence

Track of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.