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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2022–Jan 14th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Watch for wet and heavy snow on steep terrain features. Avoid large and unsupported slopes. 

Wet loose and slab avalanches are still possible while freezing levels remain high.

Confidence

Moderate - The snowpack structure is mostly striaghtforward and not unusually variable.

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels continue to change rapidly in the wake of the storm, reaching peak elevations on Friday and likely again on Sunday.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of flurries. Light southwest winds. Freezing levels spike to 2500m overnight.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy with no precipitation expected. Moderate southwest winds return. Freezing levels gradually fall from 2500 m to around 2000 m over the day. 

SATURDAY: Increasing cloud and flurries, with up to 5cm expected. Strong westerly winds. Freezing levels remain around 1500 m for the day. 

SUNDAY: Freezing levels take another spike, to near 2500 m with strong westerly winds. A mix of sun and cloud brings no significant precipitation. 

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle occurred at all elevations with the heavy rain with rising temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

A size 4 avalanche was naturally triggered near Harrison Lake. This was thought to have started as a cornice fall which triggered a storm slab and stepped down to a deeper weak layer, up to 3 m deep in places. 

If you head out into the mountains please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy rain created a saturated upper snowpack sitting over a melt freeze crust that was observed to 2000 m

Around 150 to 200 cm deep, sugary faceted grains may sit above a melt freeze crust, that formed during the cold spell in late December. Reports suggest that the snowpack may be bonding well to these layers.

The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.