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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 21st, 2022–Jan 22nd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

There is a lot of uncertainty as to how the snowpack is going to react to the sustained heat and sun. Loose wet avalanches and cornice failures are expected to become more likely each day. During times of uncertainty, conservative terrain selection is essential. 

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather. Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

The region now sits under the warm ridge of high pressure which is expected to persist into early next week bringing very high freezing levels and sun. 

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, moderate NW wind, freezing levels around 3200 m with an inversion. 

Saturday: Mainly sunny, light NW wind, freezing levels as high as 3400 m with an inversion. 

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud, moderate NW wind, freezing levels around 3000 m with an inversion, dropping to around 2500 m by Sunday night. 

Monday: Mainly sunny, light NW wind, freezing levels around 2700 m with an inversion. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity have been reported over the last few days but on Thursday, glide cracks were reported to be growing in size, likely from the persistent mild temperatures and rain event. 

If you head out into the mountains, please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy rain and warm temperatures had saturated the surface snow to mountain top elevations and a widespread thick crust now caps the snowpack. Below the crust, the snow is moist down 50-100 cm where several old crust are now breaking down. At the highest elevations around Squamish, you may find up to 15 cm of new snow from the recent storm. 

Around 150 to 200 cm deep, weak faceted grains may sit above a melt freeze crust that formed during the cold spell in late December. Reports suggest that the snowpack has been bonding well to these layers. The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • Avoid exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes, especially when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.