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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 3rd, 2022–Jan 4th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

A substantial amount of snow continues to accumulate, producing dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoidance and conservative terrain travel are warranted for a safe day in the backcountry.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, 40 km/h south wind, treeline temperature -5 C.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 40 km/h west wind, treeline temperature -5 C.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds with no precipitation, 20 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -5 C.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 20 to 30 cm, 50 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -3 C.

Avalanche Summary

Widespread storm slab avalanches were observed within the storm snow on Sunday. A similar trend likely occurred as the storm continued on Monday.

We'd appreciate any observations while you are out travelling, even just a photo, on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

A substantial amount of snow has accumulated in the region since January 1, with storm totals around 80 cm or more. More snow is forecast into Tuesday. All this snow has formed a touchy storm slab in sheltered areas and wind slabs in exposed terrain at higher elevations.

The storm snow overlies a thin but hard melt-freeze crust found up to about 1700 m. In wind-exposed terrain, the snow likely overlies previously wind-hardened snow. There is also the possibility of the storm snow sitting on weak and sugary faceted grains and/or feathery surface hoar that formed during the extended cold period in late December.

The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and a few hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
  • Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Stick to simple terrain and be aware of what is above you at all times.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.