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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 1st, 2023–Feb 2nd, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.

Regions

Yukon, Tutshi, Wheaton, White Pass East, White Pass West.

A persistent weak layer exists in certain terrain features in the alpine. Layers like this are unpredictable and hard to out-smart. This problem could be around for a while and a very cautious approach to large, connected, north-facing alpine terrain is prudent at this time.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A couple of large (size 2-3) persistent slab, human-triggered avalanches have been reported within the last 7 days. Avalanches have occurred near ridgetops in north-to-northeast alpine terrain. Both avalanches have shown an impressive capability of propagating large distances. Here is a link to the most recent human-triggered size 3 avalanche.

If you are out in the backcountry please consider filling out a Mountain Information Network report.

Snowpack Summary

In alpine terrain, recent winds and warm temperatures have created a variety of wind-affected surfaces. Recently formed hard surfaces and surface crusts had new surface hoar and facets on top before being buried by small amounts of new snow earlier this week. This new layer should be monitored closely moving forward as new snow arrives.

Persistent weak layers of surface hoar and/or facets exist in north facing alpine features behind ridge lines, creating a number of recent, scary human-triggered avalanches.

Below roughly 1700 m a widespread, supportive, melt-freeze crust is present, with moist snow below.

Weather Summary

Wednesday night

Mostly cloudy. Trace amounts of new snow. Temperature -15 C overnight. North winds at 15 km/h in the alpine.

Thursday

A mix of sun and cloud. No new snow. Temperature rising to -8 C into the afternoon. A light north breeze.

Friday

A mix of sun and cloud. Flurries possible. Temperature -7 C. Light, variable winds.

Saturday

A mix of sun and cloud. Flurries possible. Temperature low -13 C high -7 C. Light, variable winds.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • In times of uncertainty conservative terrain choices are our best defense.
  • Use caution on large alpine slopes, especially around thin areas that may propagate to deeper instabilities.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Persistent slabs have potential to pull back to lower angle terrain.
  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.